Former Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian (left) was the victim of a staged assassination attempt one day before getting re-elected with a margin of 0.22%
By Loh Kai Herng
Contributor
This Friday, for the first time ever, Singapore will have a one-day cooling-off period before election day.
The government said in 2009 that a 24-hour cooling-off period is necessary to give voters time to reflect before they cast their votes. Under the new law, candidates are banned from campaigning on the eve of Polling Day, but party political broadcasts are allowed. They are to be no more mass rallies, door-to-door visits and even displays of party symbols.
According to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, “Previously, once in a while, we have had pushing and shoving at election rallies as the crowd gets worked up and doesn’t disperse, but the main thing is to have time for people to think over the issues and to vote in a calm state of mind.”
“I think 24 hours after the last excitement of the election campaign period, the rallies, the door-to-door campaigning, the adrenaline flowing, the clash in the mass media as well as in person, perambulating vans blaring away loud speakers, it’s good to have 24 hours to just calm down, think about it – tomorrow we vote.”
Workers’ Party Secretary-General, Low Thia Khiang, registered his disagreements with PM Lee’s proposal, saying that the ruling party could “disguise” its campaign as news item in the mass media, but the opposition would be unable to do so.
But there is one even more damaging scenario the opposition has perhaps not taken into account: the possibility of a “Friday Surprise”, launched by the PAP government at the last minute, completely catching voters by surprise, and leading to a dramatic shift in popular sentiment hours before the country votes.
Improbable as it may sound, history has shown that there have been many last-minute surprises before in other countries around the world. The large impacts of these surprises indicate clearly that voter sentiment is very much still in flux until the final moments before they cast their ballots. Emotions run high before elections, and as people make up their minds, a single important issue could easily tilt public opinion one way or another.
For example, in the lead-up to the 1980 United States elections, the Republican Party was afraid that the Carter government would suddenly announce a last-minute deal to release the 52 Americans who have been held hostage in Tehran since the previous year. This announcement would have allowed Carter to regain the precious votes that he had lost because on the perception that he was a weak President and had bungled up issues of national security.
As it happened, in the days before the elections, the Iranian government instead announced that they would not be releasing the hostages till after the elections. In fact, Iran only announced they would release the hostages just twenty minutes after Ronald Reagan concluded his inauguration address on January 20, 1981. This gave rise to a conspiracy theory, alleging that Reagan had struck a deal with the Iranian government to strategically time the hostage release announcement, and ensure that Carter would not be re-elected.
But perhaps the most memorable pre-election day surprise in modern day happened much closer to home. On the eve of the 2004 Taiwanese Presidential elections, Chen Shui Bian was allegedly shot at as he stood on the back seat of an open convertible jeep moving slowly through a crowded street. He was announced to be in critical condition, and rushed to a nearby hospital for emergency care.
Taiwan’s 23 million citizens held their breath, and the Taiwanese media went into overdrive with conspiracy theories about China’s invisible hand in the island’s domestic elections. The next day, Chen was returned to power with a razor-thin margin of 29,500 votes (0.22%). Before the assassination attempt, it was predicted that Chen would lose the election.
Anything can happen on the eve of an election, and more so in Singapore. With the cooling-off day in effect, the opposition would be unable to properly respond to any last-minute bombshell that the PAP regime decides to explode on an unsuspecting public, given that they cannot hold any rallies nor make any speeches during those very important 24 hours. In effect, the PAP is silencing the opposition in their most crucial moment.
On the other hand, as its candidates are also office-holders, the PAP enjoys unparalleled access to the media, which is generally viewed as being biased towards the state. In addition, the PAP also controls the government, allowing them to cleverly time the release of important announcements.
Here are four events that could possibly qualify as “Friday Surprises” on May 6, 2011. They are all conjectures, and based on a wide stretch of the imagination.
But as always, anything can happen, so do stay alert on May 6.
1) National Security Threat
The Prime Minister makes an emergency announcement on television, saying that a bomb attempt on a populous part of the island has just been foiled. He details the terrorists’ schemes to destroy us, and praises law enforcement for having detected the threat. The Prime Minister then states strongly that the government will spare nothing in going after terrorists out to destabilize the fabric of the nation, and highlights the importance of a strong state.
Fear sweeps the population, and they vote conservatively. Because of the new cooling-off law, opposition candidates are unable to gain access to mainstream media to comment about what has just happened. They cannot reach voters. The next day, the ruling party is returned to power in its largest-ever winning margin since Independence. It sweeps all 87 seats in Parliament, and proceeds to use the Internal Security Act to launch a crippling crackdown of ‘destabilizing elements’ in the country, a crackdown so large that it makes Operation Cold Storage seem miniscule by comparison.
2) Damaging Video Surfaces
A video mysteriously appears on YouTube, purporting to show an opposition candidate having gay sex, involved in an extramarital affair, making racist jokes or illegally pocketing municipal funds. (Author’s note: Interestingly enough, a video that questions Low Thia Khiang’s management of Hougang Town Council has appeared yesterday). The video goes viral, and within a few hours, it attracts over 100,000 hits. The opposition candidate under attack is caught by surprise. He is unable to respond in time, and Singaporeans are left with a distasteful image of opposition politicians.
There is a large swing towards the ruling party, and it picks up Hougang and Potong Pasir for the first time. The Workers’ Party’s bid for Aljunied fails terribly, leading some to wonder how it could have ever been considered a hotspot in the lead-up to the polls. Impossible? Look at the videos that have surfaced just across the border in Malaysia, allegedly containing opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.
3) Mainstream Media Investigates Ex-Civil Servants
This election, there are a number of ex-civil servants or ex-scholarship recipients contesting under the opposition banner. On May 6, the Straits Times gains access to files documenting opposition party candidates’ work during their time in government.
As Singaporeans wake up on polling day, they open the Straits Times to find a detailed report investigating the performance of opposition candidates during their stint in the civil service. The media has a field day as it trumps up how these candidates were actually fired from office for misdemeanours, and did not choose to resign on their own accord.
Voters are left questioning the abilities of opposition politicians. Singapore votes for the PAP, and the opposition is soundly defeated in all contested seats.
4) Lawsuits Served, Dissidents Arrested
A veteran politician from the ruling party, also one of Singapore’s founding fathers, alleges that a high-profile opposition candidate has defamed him in a recent rally and “spewed a whole list of untruths”. He takes the matter to court claiming hundreds of thousands of dollars in damages, and a lawsuit is promptly served on the candidate. The Singapore Police confirms that it has received notice of this, and is currently investigating the candidate in question. Besides suing an opposition candidate, he also sues a long list of over 1,000 citizen journalists and people who have written articles or posted comments about him on the Internet.
A chill descends on Singapore. Within hours, the Internet becomes quiet. No one dares to post anything on Facebook. People take down Youtube videos. Prominent blogs delete their political postings, and no one wants to talk about the elections anymore.
The next day, the PAP wins all 87 seats in parliament. All 87 PAP candidates smile for the cameras, and Singapore returns to the level of democracy last seen in 1981. But the aftermath of this Friday Surprise is not yet over. Within a few months, the Supreme Court finds all defendants guilty, and awards the plaintiff all the damages he seeks. In a parliamentary session, the PAP leadership discusses how the Internet has destabilized the country and divided the population during the 2011 elections.
The House passes the “Securing Our Future” Act with a margin of 87-0, and the government announces that it will close down all websites deemed to be political, and prosecute anyone engaged in political discussions on the Internet.
After a brief period of discomfort, Singaporeans adjust, and eventually get used to reading The Straits Times and The New Paper again. Over time, the great political awakening that marked the lead-up to the 2011 election is gradually forgotten, and erased from the collective memory of the nation.
—
The author is a 21-year old undergraduate at Brown University, a reputable Ivy League institution in the United States.
Ok, I take great offense at the description of Mas Selamat the terrorist as the “Islamic terrorist.”
As a Singaporean Muslim, I can tell you that that term is an oxymoron. What the writer of this article had done is to parrot our esteemed local mass media specifically the Straits Times and Channelnewsasia. I used the word “esteemed” of course sarcastically.
In the same way that the Straits Times and indeed any of newspapers printed by SPH cannot be trusted to be fair to our opposition parties, the Straits Times has for years been misrepresenting Islam by mispresenting issues such as the conflicts in southern Thailand and Chechnya, and aspects of Islam such as jihad and the status of non-Muslims in Islam.
It may surprise non-Muslim Singaporeans to know that what you read about Islam in the Straits Times isn’t the Islam that Muslims recognise as their religion.
And yes, the relevant PAP agencies have been informed of this matter for years, and yet despite the obvious effects that this problem have on our racial and religious harmony, the Straits Times has been allowed to continue creating fear of and hate for Islam ( in the same way Ho Ching has been allowed to remain head of Temasek Holdings despite the terrible losses ).
My sincerest appeal to non-Muslim Singaporeans is to desist from using terms which are unfair, inaccurate and unbalanced.
Criticise Islam if you want but do so with facts. To say that Mas Selamat is an ” Islamic terrorist” is easy but the question is can the writer of this article prove that Islam promotes or inculcates terrorism ?
What Islam teaches is self-defense which as a principle is not only fair but necessary. Here, Islam is explicit in insisting that 1 ) do not transgress limits in defending oneself ( here including not killing innocent civilians such as women, children, the elderly, the clergy and all others not involved ) and 2 ) to desist from fighting if the enemy inclines towards peace.
What Mas Selamat and the Straits Times have in common it seems therefore is that both look at Islam selectively – emphasising on certain verses of the Quran and ignoring all other verses.
Below is a link to an open letter written by a Singaporean Muslim to MM Lee in response to his claims about Islam in his book “The Hard Truths”.
In this open letter, it contains good explanation of what Islam really is and what it stands for. I hope it is an eye opener.
http://asingaporeanmuslim.blogspot.com/2011/03/real-hard-truths-open-letter-to-mm-lee.html
IMPORTANT:
Reminder For Singaporeans Before Election Day
Especially future “Repenting Singaporeans” & “footloose” Young Singaporeans As MM Lee
branded you.
HARD TRUTHS:Looking Back at PAP: From 1950s to Now
Before your votes are cast, remember this:
1. In Year 1981 a small time Singaporean call Joshua Benjamin Jeyaratnam (JBJ)broke the PAP’s dominance and full control of power since independence by winning a seat in Anson(the first opposition in a 100% PAP parliament under Lee Kuan Yew)
2. It was late JBJ who raised the issue on corruption by PAP and former HDB minister Tay Cheng Wan who later commited suicide after investigation.
3. It wa JBJ who raised the question of special discounts given to Lee Kuan Yew and his son Lee Hsien Loong while serving as PM for property purchases in Orange Grove (high end).
4. Fast forward,Few years back when MM lee’s wife collapsed in UK, he decided to use the entire SQ SIA plane as makeshift hospital to bring her back to Singapore. Only after public questioning and outcry, he told through government he will bear the costs for that flight back.
5. The assumption that he owned SIA as his decries the very notion he is the public servant and not master as nothing is “given” nor he owns Singapore.
6. The financial losses from 1990s during Singapore’s first foray into China – Suzhou project saw losses of more than $40 Billion dollars lost under a new in charge Raymond Lim under Lee Kuan Yew.
7. LKY later told public it was ok and a good lesson learnt and moved on to bring Raymond Lim as a new PAP minister with various portfolios.
8. Neither LKY nor Raymond Lim was made answerable for that loss and brushed off without any censure from public, media nor PAP controlled parliament.
In 1990, $40 Billion was a huge sum like today.
9. The last 5 years GIC under MM Lee Kuan Yew, Tony Tan and PAP appointed Ho Ching who heads Temasek Holdings saw terrible losses and bad investments of more than $150 to 300 Billions of dollars and were never questioned, censured and most importantly fired from their jobs like in any normal financial organization or government.
10. Ho Ching was a PAP appointee by Dhanabalan who heads Temasek as recommended by her father in law Lee Kuan Yew and this was done not by proper corporate selection agst the best from the financial industry with proven track records.
11. A perverse family control of Singapore’s finances and reserves have been maintained by Lee kuan Yew who took on as chairman of GIC which he stills holds, Lee Hsien Loong as Finance minister (only appointed PAP man Tharman as Finance Minister few years ago) and his wife Ho Ching remains Head of Temasek Holdings as untouchable despite various losses.
12. Both Lee Kuan Yew and Ho Ching do not come with proven investment track records, financial experiences as heads of investment funds like in normal business investment environments other than what they claim to be and backed by a PAP parliament which does not question, censure or hold them accountable.
Basically not qualified as in today’s times.
13. In all none of them have been accountable whereas in major developed countries like USA, Europe finance ministers, heads of major banks like BOA, Citibank have been fired for bad investments, poor performance and accountability.
14. With a dominant PAP parliament stronghold wo any opposition this accountability has been continuously forsaken by the ruling party especially MM Lee, Ho Ching, lee Hsien Loong and PAP government.
15. It should be noted that there were many accomplished and proven financial investments experts available and ready to be hired from open markets in Singapore and elsehere who can take over and provide better returns and good investment decisions for Temasek, GIC then current incumbent.
16. These are professionals vs Lee Kuan Yew and Ho Ching but sensitive reasons provided to keep our reserves under the family control of Lee Kuan Yew in today’s times where many accomplished professional are available for hire.
17. In the financial crisis of 2007,2009 even PAP town councils and ministries made terrible bad investments in toxic investment products and were quickly dismissed as one off and nobody was censured, held accountable or fired. All these again with tax payers’ monies.
18. During the time of late Elected President Ong Teng Chiong, PAP government was asked to provides accounts on our national reserves and detailed data for his scrutiny.
19. This was not honoured by a troubled majority ruling PAP government under MM Lee and Lee HSien Loong with Goh Chock Tong.Again accountability was brushed off.
20. Simple mediocre answers were given that it will take years to consolidate and out down all our assets and reserves details.
21. When Islamic Terrorist Mat Selmat escaped from Singapore’s prisons under the watch of DPM and then Home Affairs Minister Wong Kan Seng again he was left without much censure and neither did he resign nor was fired.
22. Still again no accountability and worst PM Lee went on to public declare it is not the policy of PAP government to fire any of it’s ministers or MPs for mistakes done as will upset their government or political makeup angering Singaporeans.
23. Again party and stronghold interests of ruling elite became first and important than accountability and option to answer to public.
24. Fast forward the YOG budget under Dr Vivian Balakrishnan was over estimated with huge losses (as over costing due to bad calculations and planning)
by inexperienced, inacapable minister and yet still left off the hook by majority PAP government without censure nor accountability.
25. Public did get a single apology nor accountability until 2 days before election where Dr Bala apologises and admits his mistakes.
26. Normal cases people are fired for such mistakes and yet again PAP protects its core people.
- So now Singaporeans do you think this nonsensical and above the law, Ivory tower and elite group of untouchable ministers and MPs of PAP should be brought down to earth and made answerable to the very public they are serving?
- Can we have accountability and people like Ho Ching needs to be fired and replaced by capable professionals.
- Can we break this family owned mentality and take back our national reserves and keep it under the professional management of people accountable to the government with multiple voices and public they are serving.
- Our reserves are not ,NOT ,NOT, NOT ,the ATM for any single family, person or ruler to paly with without accountability but the Public’s and SIngaporeans.
- Do we need another 5 years of proven “Yes” men to serve you and yet remain unaccountable serving PAP party and all might lord MM Lee?
Or we take our rights, country, reserves and our lives back into our hands and vote in the Opposition for a start.
You decide what you want Singaporeans on May 7th 2011.
Singapore for Singaporeans.
Ok, I take great offense at the description of Mas Selamat the terrorist as the “Islamic terrorist.”
As a Singaporean Muslim, I can tell you that that term is an oxymoron. What the poster of the above comment had done is to parrot our esteemed local mass media specifically the Straits Times and Channelnewsasia. I used the word “esteemed” of course sarcastically.
In the same way that the Straits Times and indeed any of newspapers printed by SPH cannot be trusted to be fair to our opposition parties, the Straits Times has for years been misrepresenting Islam by mispresenting issues such as the conflicts in southern Thailand and Chechnya, and aspects of Islam such as jihad and the status of non-Muslims in Islam.
It may surprise non-Muslim Singaporeans to know that what you read about Islam in the Straits Times isn’t the Islam that Muslims recognise as their religion.
And yes, the relevant PAP agencies have been informed of this matter for years, and yet despite the obvious effects that this problem have on our racial and religious harmony, the Straits Times has been allowed to continue creating fear of and hate for Islam ( in the same way Ho Ching has been allowed to remain head of Temasek Holdings despite the terrible losses ).
My sincerest appeal to non-Muslim Singaporeans is to desist from using terms which are unfair, inaccurate and unbalanced.
Criticise Islam if you want but do so with facts. To say that Mas Selamat is an ” Islamic terrorist” is easy but the question is can the poster prove that Islam promotes or inculcates terrorism ?
What Islam teaches is self-defense which as a principle is not only fair but necessary. Here, Islam is explicit in insisting that 1 ) do not transgress limits in defending oneself ( here including not killing innocent civilians such as women, children, the elderly, the clergy and all others not involved ) and 2 ) to desist from fighting if the enemy inclines towards peace.
What Mas Selamat and the Straits Times have in common it seems therefore is that both look at Islam selectively – emphasising on certain verses of the Quran and ignoring all other verses.
Below is a link to an open letter written by a Singaporean Muslim to MM Lee in response to his claims about Islam in his book “The Hard Truths”.
In this open letter, it contains good explanation of what Islam really is and what it stands for. I hope it is an eye opener.
http://asingaporeanmuslim.blogspot.com/2011/03/real-hard-truths-open-letter-to-mm-lee.html
Pingback: A series of rants on the elections | 乱世浮生
Probably something much simpler.
Notice that this year’s May Day did not have the usual Friends of Labour Award from NTUC (remember one year they awarded to Ho Ching even though Temasek had always declared that the company does not interfere or direct the running of its investee companies.
So publish the Labour awards on Friday morning papers and splash over TV. Likely recipients? Khaw, VB, MBT plus couple of industrialists to illustrate the importance of manufacturing.
There are any number of ways to do this. One extreme example would be an explosion, playing the terrorist card. Another, would be MM Lee stepping down and taking all the blame for the past 5 years of cock-ups. Another, heavily subsidized medical care or removal of means testing. Basically, anything is possible if they are desperate enough.
Read:http://thetwophilo.wordpress.com/2011/04/24/beware-the-night-of-the-pap-daggers-6-may-2011/
Another conspiracy theorist >>>
<<>>>>
Nani, are you really BG Yeo?
Can the surprise be the demise of the father, hungry ghost & spirit. a last min sob ditch to continue elections and score sympathy votes before funeral. knwing ruling anything is possible & old man already said his time over & last thing he can bear is tsunami losses while alive. To go or Not to will be the qn? fri we find out
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The Opposition parties do not have full access to Singapore Main Stream Media.
The day of rest is acceptable but it gives PAP unfair advantage as it can speak to more voters than the opposition can via newsprint and TV broadcasts linked to them.
This speaks bluntly of PAP’s record in media openness, which is well below East Timor[*].
[*] http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=546&year=2010
Nani, whoever you may be, please be available after May 7th.
Don’t worry. I will be here. Now, I hope you will be here when the PAP achieves a clean sweep of all 87 seats. That is what Singapore needs, and that is how Singapore will decide. Opposition supporters are just rabble-rousers and radical elements, they are strictly in the minority.
tq bg yeo
bg yeo aka nani , & you will be part of ashes fm Sg tsunami
Nani,
Even PM Lee has apologised and you still remain your hung up arrogant self???
I think that the PAP has realised it needs to tone down its approach and be more humble if it wants to avoid a thrashing at the polls. It can’t remain on the offensive and it has to be less heavy-handed.
How about this – Government doubles or triples your “Grow & Share” bonus if PAP wins all the GRCs?? Dream on , Guys…
I really would not put it past PAP to actually try one of these stunts. I mean, we all saw what Ah Bian did and it won him lots of sympathy votes. If the old man drops dead or suffers a stroke, it will be the same outcome. Don’t forget Lim Boon Heng already cried once in this election to try and gain some sympathy.
6) One more scenario: the Old Man suffers some injuries (or maybe even a “minor” stroke) on Thursday night, and then continues to make some “touching” speeches about future of Singapore, or even cry on TV again. No more threat, just something about Singaporean should not be rocking the foundation, blah blah blah. MSM will be full blast on Friday, and this should be able to swing 3-5% back to PAP.
This seems to be the only way Old Man can help his son this time.
get to the point sir, old man dies then get sympathy votes as voting continues or postpones buying days to garner sob stories. knwing party all scripted ahead. lucky bg yeo aka nani
This writer Loh Kai Herng is simply employing scare-mongering tactics to try and emotionally pressure people to vote for the opposition. This is nothing but outright fear-mongering. Please tell me, has anyone ever been arrested for airing pro-opposition views even in the time when PAP had 100% control of Parliament (before 1981)? Please tell me whether the PAP has ever declared martial law even when it had 100% control of Parliament?
but the pap never had 100% control of government b4????
Please read up on your facts. Before 1981, PAP had full control of Parliament. It won all the seats from late 1960s until 1981. The rabble-rousing hustler JBJ was the first opposition MP followed by Chiam in 1984. Before them there was no one.
nani late JBJ was the first guy to slap LKY & PAP, don’t forget history and pple woke up. Fm former HDB Tay Cheng Wan, orange grove residential discounts for LKY & LHL, and more.pple fd out slowly.respect is earned & continues despite ur last min ramants bg yeo aka nani
Rabble rouser? To me, you are equally biased against the Opposition too!
Scaremongering… what he has described are possibilities and some of these have already happened in previous post elections, like the lawsuits of political dissidents, operation cold store on the pretext of arresting Marxists? really.. only Kuan Yew can cook this up..
Maybe if he konks off.. there will e some sympathy votes.. but you can bet not from the blogosphere..
5) A repeat of 2006 happens, with a few changes.
Hougang and Potong Pasir are still opposition wards.
AMK to vote for RP/SPP, who gather at least 40% of the votes, leading to questions about the WP’s decision to contest AMK in 2006. And their intentions.
Marine Parade to be decided by a literal 200 votes.
Aljunied and Bishan-TP election results to resemble the US Presidential elections.
Nicole Seah to get at least 3 marriage proposals. :3c
The so-called “political awakening” to die off, like it did in 2006.
“The so-called “political awakening” to die off, like it did in 2006.”
Like.
The more things change, the more things stay the same. How soon people forget…